FiveThirtyNine LLM forecasting

An AI forecasting system built on GPT-4o generating probability predictions for complex geopolitical and political events through multi-step reasoning: searching for news, compiling facts, weighing arguments, and producing calibrated probabilities. Testing against 177 historical events showed 87.7% accuracy, matching crowds of experienced forecasters and sometimes outperforming them. Proposed applications include integration into chatbots for policymakers and social media to improve decision-making and reduce polarization.